THE SOCIAL MECHANISM OF RUSSIAN CYCLES
Politeia
2011, No 1
Socio-political history of Russia is characterized by well-known cycles
with the most frequent pattern (a circular dynamics): a repetition of three
phases "stagnation→crisis→authoritarian rollback”. The
first model includes two actors: Ruler with strategies of repressive coercion
and conservatism, and Elite with strategies of honest service and corruption.
The main effect of Elite’s strategies is the level of so called resource
balance (between State, Elite, and People). Repressive coercion switches on the
Elite’s honest service that provides normal level of balance. In these
conditions Ruler’s strategy switches to conservation and Elite’s
strategy becomes corruption which decreases the resource balance. Then the
social-economic and/or geopolitical crisis and instability begins. It turns to
new authoritarian rollback when new pair of Ruler and Elite start again their
strategies of repressive coercion and honest service. Other models represent
various versions of complication of this simple scheme. The model components
are compared with the specifics if Russian mentality given in such oppositions
as “ours/alien”, “high serfdom / low profit”,
“order/freedom”, etc.